TOWARDS DECISION
MAKING
Dr. K J Sarma
Every
thing is not good simply because it is old. Nor every thing should not be
condemned because it is new. The fool is led by the judgment of others. But the
wise men resort to the one or the other offer proper inquiry and
examination.
( Mahakavi Kalidasa )
Dedicated to the
memories of
my father Sri
Kalavendi Subrahmanyam
my mother Smt
Kalavendi Annarpurnama
my wife Smt Kalavendi
Shashikala and
my mentor
teacher, who shaped my thinking
Prof. Ajit Kumar
Bhattacharji
Preface
Decision making is necessary not only for
management specialists but also
for any human being with some common sense and quantitative commitment.
This monograph is aimed at general and academic reading. Developing precise
analytical and empirical thinking and rational decision making attitude is the
basic idea.
Here
an attempt is made to understand the analysis of decisions. Sufficient survey
of the available literature is made and a trial was made to develop pragmatic
thinking. All through a normative approach is adapted.
An effort is made to develop the subject, starting from
individual decisions to a decision process, inducing the concept of
uncertainty.
Many have helped either explicitly or implicitly in
preparing this compendium. I express my
heart felt thanks to all those who encouraged me.
K J Sarma
List of Contents
1.
Fundamentals of Decision Making
2.
Objectives and Criteria for Decision
Making
3.
Introduction to Utility Theory
4.
Decision Trees
5.
Miscellaneous Problems
6.
Introduction to Forecasting
7.
Introduction to Markov Chains
8.
Theory of Games
9.
Modeling and Simulations
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